# What retirement withdrawal is safe?

Computes how long retirement savings last with monthly withdrawals that rise each year, the most you can take to last to an age, and IRS required minimum distributions.

- Page: https://www.acalculator.org/finance/retirement-withdrawal-calculator
- JSON spec: https://www.acalculator.org/finance/retirement-withdrawal-calculator.json
- Version: 4aa341be58a0

## Default answer

Example with the default inputs (Savings at the start $1,000,000.00, You take out $4,000.00, Raise it each year by 3%, Expected yearly return 5%, Your age now 65, Money should last until age 95, Take at least the required minimum distribution No): Taking $4,000.00 a month from $1,000,000.00, raised 3% a year, at 5% a year, your money lasts 27.1 years, to age 92.1.

## Inputs

| Key | Label | Description |
| --- | --- | --- |
| balance | Savings at the start | What you have saved for retirement when the withdrawals start. |
| withdraw | You take out | The amount you take out in the first year, per month or per year. A yearly amount is split into 12. |
| raise | Raise it each year by | The percent the withdrawal goes up at the start of each new year, for example to keep up with prices. |
| rate | Expected yearly return | The yearly return on what is left. It stays the same every year. |
| age | Your age now | Your age this year, when the withdrawals start. |
| until | Money should last until age | The age the money should last to. The calculator shows the most you can take out to get there. |
| rmd | Take at least the required minimum distribution | For a traditional IRA or 401(k): from the RMD age, take at least the IRS minimum each year, even if it is more than your withdrawal. |
| rmdage | RMDs start at age | 73 if you were born from 1951 to 1959, 75 if you were born in 1960 or later. |

## Outputs

| Key | Label | Description |
| --- | --- | --- |
| lasts | Your money lasts | How long the withdrawals last: the months with a withdrawal divided by 12. |
| outAge | It runs out at age | Your age now plus the years the money lasts. |
| atUntil | Left at the age you chose | The balance at the start of the age the money should last until, or 0 if it ran out before. |
| sustainable | Most you can take out each month | The first-year monthly withdrawal, rising by your yearly raise, that lasts exactly until the age you chose (RMDs not included). |
| total | Total taken out | Every withdrawal added up, until the money runs out or age 120. |
| firstRmd | Your first RMD | The required minimum distribution for the first year it applies: that year’s starting balance ÷ the IRS distribution period. |
| left | Left at age 120 | The balance at age 120, when the money has not run out. |

## Method

Each month, take out the withdrawal (W × (1 + raise)^year, or more to meet the RMD), then the rest grows at (1 + R)^(1/12) − 1; the RMD for a year is the balance at its start ÷ the IRS distribution period for that age.

## Assumptions

- The yearly return stays the same every year. Real returns go up and down, and a bad year early on matters most.
- Withdrawals are taken at the start of each month and rise at the start of each new year.
- Taxes on withdrawals are not included.
- The RMD uses the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table and the balance at the start of each year, and is split into 12 monthly amounts.
- This is an estimate for planning, not financial advice.

## Worked examples

1. balance = $108,000.00, withdraw = $900.00, raise = 0%, rate = 0%, age = 65, until = 95 gives lasts = 10, outAge = 75, total = $108,000.00, sustainable = $300.00, atUntil = $0.00. Source: hand calculation in content.mdx: 108,000 ÷ 900 = 120 months; 108,000 ÷ 360.
2. balance = $1,000,000.00, withdraw = $4,000.00, raise = 3%, rate = 5%, age = 65, until = 95 gives lasts = 27.083333, sustainable = $3,702.30. Source: month by month in content.mdx; checked in Python.
3. balance = $500,000.00, withdraw = $1,000.00, raise = 0%, rate = 0%, age = 75, rmd = yes, rmdage = 73 gives firstRmd = $20,325.20. Source: IRS Publication 590-B, Table III: the distribution period at 75 is 24.6; 500,000 ÷ 24.6.
4. balance = $600,000.00, withdraw = $1,000.00, raise = 0%, rate = 0%, age = 70, rmd = yes, rmdage = 73, until = 80 gives firstRmd = $21,283.02, atUntil = $416,651.14. Source: IRS Publication 590-B, Table III (26.5 at 73, 25.5 at 74, …); hand calculation in content.mdx.

## FAQ

### How long will my retirement savings last?

It depends on how much you take out, how fast you raise it, and what the rest earns. $1,000,000 with $4,000 a month taken out, raised 3% a year, and a steady 5% return lasts about 27 years. The calculator shows the answer for your numbers, month by month.

### What is the 4% rule?

It is a rule of thumb from studies of past US market returns (Bengen, 1994; the "Trinity study", 1998): taking 4% of your savings in the first year and raising it with inflation lasted at least 30 years in most historical periods. It is not a guarantee, and it assumes a mix of stocks and bonds, not a steady return.

### What is a required minimum distribution (RMD)?

From a traditional IRA or 401(k), the IRS requires you to take at least a minimum each year from a set age. The RMD is the balance at the end of the previous year divided by the distribution period for your age in the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table: 26.5 at 73, 24.6 at 75, 20.2 at 80. $500,000 at age 75 means an RMD of $20,325.20.

### At what age do RMDs start?

Age 73 if you were born from 1951 to 1959, and 75 if you were born in 1960 or later, under the SECURE 2.0 Act. The law was unclear for people born in 1959; IRS proposed regulations (July 2024) say 73. Your first RMD can wait until April 1 of the following year, but then you take two in that year. Roth IRA owners do not have to take RMDs.

### Why does a bad year early in retirement matter so much?

When you take money out after a loss, you sell more of your savings at low prices, and that money cannot recover. This is called sequence-of-returns risk. The calculator uses one steady return, so it cannot show it; try a lower return to see a cautious case.

### Does it include Social Security or taxes?

No. If Social Security or a pension covers part of your spending, enter only what you take from savings. Withdrawals from a traditional IRA or 401(k) are taxed as income, so you may need to take out more than you spend. If you were born in 1960 or later, your Social Security full retirement age is 67.

## Sources

- Internal Revenue Service, Publication 590-B, Distributions from Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs), Appendix B, Table III (Uniform Lifetime). https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590b
- Internal Revenue Service, Retirement plan and IRA required minimum distributions FAQs. https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plan-and-ira-required-minimum-distributions-faqs
- SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022, section 107 (Internal Revenue Code section 401(a)(9)(C)(v)): applicable age 73, and 75 for people who reach 74 after December 31, 2032. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/401
- Federal Register, Required Minimum Distributions, proposed rule (July 19, 2024): the applicable age for people born in 1959 is 73. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/07/19/2024-14542/required-minimum-distributions
- W. P. Bengen, "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data", Journal of Financial Planning, October 1994.
- P. L. Cooley, C. M. Hubbard, D. T. Walz, "Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable", AAII Journal, February 1998.
- Social Security Administration, Benefits Planner: born in 1960 or later. https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/1960.html