# What is my PREVENT heart risk?

Estimates the 10-year and 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease, ASCVD, and heart failure with the American Heart Association PREVENT equations (base model) for adults 30 to 79.

- Page: https://www.acalculator.org/health/prevent-calculator
- JSON spec: https://www.acalculator.org/health/prevent-calculator.json
- Version: 3dab56ac124e

## Default answer

Example with the default inputs (Sex Female, Age 50, Cholesterol units mg/dL, Total cholesterol (mg/dL) 200, HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) 45, Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 160, eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m²) 90, BMI (kg/m²) 35, Taking blood pressure medicine Yes, Taking a statin No, Diabetes Yes, Current smoker No): Your estimated 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease is 14.7%, and of a heart attack or stroke (ASCVD) 9.2%.

## Inputs

| Key | Label | Description |
| --- | --- | --- |
| sex | Sex | Sex at birth. The equations differ for women and men. |
| age | Age | Age in whole years, 30 to 79. 30-year risks are for ages 30 to 59. |
| units | Cholesterol units | US units (mg/dL) or SI units (mmol/L) for total and HDL cholesterol. |
| tc | Total cholesterol (mg/dL) | Total cholesterol, 130 to 320 mg/dL. |
| tcSi | Total cholesterol (mmol/L) | Total cholesterol, 3.37 to 8.27 mmol/L. |
| hdl | HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) | HDL cholesterol, 20 to 100 mg/dL. |
| hdlSi | HDL cholesterol (mmol/L) | HDL cholesterol, 0.52 to 2.58 mmol/L. |
| sbp | Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) | The top number of the blood pressure, 90 to 180 mmHg. |
| egfr | eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m²) | Estimated glomerular filtration rate from a blood test, 15 to 140. |
| bmi | BMI (kg/m²) | Body mass index, 18.5 to 39.9. Only the heart failure equations use it. |
| bpMeds | Taking blood pressure medicine | Whether you take medicine for high blood pressure. |
| statin | Taking a statin | Whether you take a statin to lower cholesterol. |
| diabetes | Diabetes | Whether you have diabetes. |
| smoker | Current smoker | Whether you smoke now. |

## Outputs

| Key | Label | Description |
| --- | --- | --- |
| cvd10 | 10-year total CVD risk | Chance of heart attack, stroke, or heart failure in 10 years. |
| ascvd10 | 10-year ASCVD risk | Chance of a heart attack or stroke in 10 years. |
| hf10 | 10-year heart failure risk | Chance of heart failure in 10 years. |
| cvd30 | 30-year total CVD risk | Chance of heart attack, stroke, or heart failure in 30 years (ages 30 to 59). |
| ascvd30 | 30-year ASCVD risk | Chance of a heart attack or stroke in 30 years (ages 30 to 59). |
| hf30 | 30-year heart failure risk | Chance of heart failure in 30 years (ages 30 to 59). |

## Method

Risk = 100 × e^x ÷ (1 + e^x), x = constant + Σ coefficient × transformed term, with the sex-specific PREVENT base-model coefficients of Khan 2024 for total CVD, ASCVD, and heart failure at 10 and 30 years.

## Assumptions

- Adults 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease. 30-year risks are shown for ages 30 to 59 only.
- Cholesterol in mg/dL is converted to mmol/L by multiplying by 0.02586 (Khan 2024).
- Base model only: it does not use urine albumin, HbA1c, or the social deprivation index.
- Each risk is rounded to 0.1%.

## Worked examples

1. sex = female, age = 50, units = us, tc = 200, hdl = 45, sbp = 160, egfr = 90, bmi = 35, bpMeds = yes, statin = no, diabetes = yes, smoker = no gives cvd10 = 14.7%, ascvd10 = 9.2%, hf10 = 8.1%, cvd30 = 53%, ascvd30 = 35.4%, hf30 = 39%. Source: Khan 2024 coefficients, Python 3 check 14.68%, 9.20%, 8.06%, 52.99%, 35.43%, 38.96%.
2. sex = male, age = 55, units = si, tcSi = 4.8, hdlSi = 1.3, sbp = 130, egfr = 90, bmi = 25, bpMeds = no, statin = no, diabetes = no, smoker = no gives cvd10 = 4.6%, ascvd10 = 2.9%, hf10 = 1.9%, cvd30 = 24.1%, ascvd30 = 15%, hf30 = 12.4%. Source: Khan 2024 constants for men: 100 / (1 + e^3.031168) = 4.60%, e^3.500655 gives 2.93%, e^3.946391 gives 1.90%.
3. sex = female, age = 65, units = us, tc = 240, hdl = 40, sbp = 150, egfr = 45, bmi = 28, bpMeds = yes, statin = yes, diabetes = no, smoker = yes gives cvd10 = 28.2%, ascvd10 = 17.3%, hf10 = 14.7%. Source: Khan 2024 base-model equations for women.

## FAQ

### What is the PREVENT calculator?

PREVENT (Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs) is a set of equations published by the American Heart Association in 2024 (Khan and others). They estimate the risk of total cardiovascular disease, of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (heart attack and stroke), and of heart failure, over 10 and 30 years, for adults without known heart disease.

### How is PREVENT different from the ASCVD (Pooled Cohort Equations) calculator?

PREVENT was built from more recent and larger US data. It starts at age 30, adds kidney function (eGFR) and statin use, estimates heart failure, and does not use race. It usually gives lower risks than the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations for the same person.

### Why does PREVENT ask for eGFR and BMI?

Chronic kidney disease raises heart risk, so eGFR is in every PREVENT equation. BMI is used only in the heart failure equations. If you know only your creatinine, estimate eGFR first with the GFR calculator.

### Why is there no 30-year risk for me?

The 30-year equations were built for ages 30 to 59. From age 60, the calculator shows 10-year risks only.

### What do the risk numbers mean?

A 10-year total CVD risk of 10% means that about 10 in 100 people with the same risk factors had a cardiovascular event within 10 years in the study data. It is not a prediction for one person. Guidelines use these numbers with other factors to decide on prevention, together with a clinician.

## Sources

- Khan SS, Matsushita K, Sang Y, et al. Development and validation of the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations. Circulation. 2024;149(6):430-449, Supplemental Table S12 (base model). https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.067626 (retrieved 2026-09-28)
- Review of Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease EVENTs (PREVENT). Evidence to Action (MDCalc). https://mdcalc.scholasticahq.com/article/164331-review-of-predicting-risk-of-cardiovascular-disease-events-prevent (the coefficients as printed; retrieved 2026-09-28)
- Mayer MG. preventr: an implementation of the AHA PREVENT equations (R package, used only to check results). https://github.com/martingmayer/preventr (retrieved 2026-09-28)