What is my 10-year ASCVD risk?
Enter your age, cholesterol, blood pressure, and a few yes-or-no questions to estimate your 10-year risk of a first heart attack or stroke. For information only. This is not medical advice or a diagnosis. Do not use it to make treatment decisions without a clinician. No licensed clinician has reviewed this page.
- 10-year ASCVD risk
- 5.4%
Your estimated 10-year ASCVD risk is 5.4%, which is Borderline risk (5% to 7.4%).
Borderline risk (5% to 7.4%)
- Low risk (under 5%)
- Borderline risk (5% to 7.4%)
- Intermediate risk (7.5% to 19.9%)
- High risk (20% or more)
- Risk category
- Borderline risk (5% to 7.4%)
- Equation used
- White men
10-year ASCVD risk: 5.4%. Your estimated 10-year ASCVD risk is 5.4%, which is Borderline risk (5% to 7.4%).
Which risk category?
This calculator gives general information only. It is not medical advice and does not replace a doctor or other health care provider. Talk with a professional about your results. Terms of use
How to calculate
Estimates the 10-year risk of a first heart attack or stroke (hard ASCVD) for adults 40 to 79 with the Pooled Cohort Equations of the 2013 ACC/AHA guideline, and shows the 2018 guideline risk category.
Example with the default inputs (Sex Male, Race White or other, Age 55, Cholesterol units mg/dL, Total cholesterol (mg/dL) 213, HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) 50, Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 120, Taking blood pressure medicine No, Diabetes No, Current smoker No): Your estimated 10-year ASCVD risk is 5.4%, which is Borderline risk (5% to 7.4%).
Method: Risk = 1 − S10^exp(Σ coefficient × value − mean), with the natural logs of age, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure, and the coefficients, baseline survival S10, and mean of Goff 2013 Table A for each of the four sex and race groups.
- Adults 40 to 79 without known heart disease or stroke, with LDL cholesterol under 190 mg/dL (the guideline treats 190 or more separately).
- Other races and ethnic groups use the White equations, as the guideline says.
- mmol/L is converted to mg/dL by dividing by 0.02586.
- The risk is rounded to 0.1%, and the category is read from the rounded risk.
Worked examples
Each example is checked against the calculator on every build.
- Sex Female, Race White or other, Age 55, Cholesterol units mg/dL, Total cholesterol (mg/dL) 213, HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) 50, Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 120, Taking blood pressure medicine no, Diabetes no, Current smoker no gives 10-year ASCVD risk 2.1%, Risk category Low risk (under 5%).Source: Goff et al., Circulation 2014, Table A example profile and White-women coefficients: sum −29.6767, 1 − 0.9665^exp(−29.6767 + 29.18) = 2.052%, shown as 2.1%
- Sex Female, Race African American, Age 55, Cholesterol units mg/dL, Total cholesterol (mg/dL) 213, HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) 50, Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 120, Taking blood pressure medicine no, Diabetes no, Current smoker no gives 10-year ASCVD risk 3%, Risk category Low risk (under 5%).Source: Goff et al. 2014, Table A example profile, African American women: sum 86.1677, 1 − 0.9533^exp(86.1677 − 86.61) = 3.026%, shown as 3.0%
- Sex Male, Race White or other, Age 55, Cholesterol units mg/dL, Total cholesterol (mg/dL) 213, HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) 50, Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 120, Taking blood pressure medicine no, Diabetes no, Current smoker no gives 10-year ASCVD risk 5.4%, Risk category Borderline risk (5% to 7.4%).Source: Goff et al. 2014, Table A example profile, White men: sum 60.6995, 1 − 0.9144^exp(60.6995 − 61.18) = 5.384%, shown as 5.4%. The guideline text prints 5.3% for this profile, from the sum cut to 60.69
- Sex Male, Race African American, Age 55, Cholesterol units mg/dL, Total cholesterol (mg/dL) 213, HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) 50, Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 120, Taking blood pressure medicine no, Diabetes no, Current smoker no gives 10-year ASCVD risk 6.1%, Risk category Borderline risk (5% to 7.4%).Source: Goff et al. 2014, Table A example profile, African American men: sum 18.9728, 1 − 0.8954^exp(18.9728 − 19.54) = 6.073%, shown as 6.1%
- Sex Male, Race White or other, Age 60, Cholesterol units mmol/L, Total cholesterol (mmol/L) 5.172, HDL cholesterol (mmol/L) 1.1637, Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 140, Taking blood pressure medicine yes, Diabetes yes, Current smoker yes gives 10-year ASCVD risk 34.5%, Risk category High risk (20% or more).Source: Goff et al. 2014 Table A equation for White men: sum 62.7328, 1 − 0.9144^exp(62.7328 − 61.18) = 34.48%, shown as 34.5%
Medical disclaimer
This calculator is for information and education only. It is not medical advice, and its result is not a diagnosis. Do not use it to start, stop, or change a treatment without a clinician who knows your health history. No licensed clinician has reviewed this page. This site's editors checked the formulas and worked examples against published sources. If you think you have a medical emergency, call your local emergency number.
When this does not apply. The Pooled Cohort Equations are for non-Hispanic African American and White adults 40 to 79 without heart disease, stroke, or peripheral artery disease (Goff 2013). They do not apply to people who already have these conditions, to people with LDL cholesterol of 190 mg/dL or more, or to values outside the input ranges below.
How the risk is worked out
The Pooled Cohort Equations (Goff 2013, Table A) give the 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD event:
risk = 1 − S10^exp(sum − mean)
"ln" is the natural logarithm. Cholesterol is in mg/dL and systolic blood pressure (SBP) in mmHg. Smoker and diabetes are 1 for yes and 0 for no. The SBP term uses the "treated" coefficient if you take blood pressure medicine, otherwise the "untreated" one.
| Term | White women | African American women | White men | African American men |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ln age | −29.799 | 17.114 | 12.344 | 2.469 |
| (ln age)² | 4.884 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ln total cholesterol | 13.540 | 0.940 | 11.853 | 0.302 |
| ln age × ln total cholesterol | −3.114 | 0 | −2.664 | 0 |
| ln HDL | −13.578 | −18.920 | −7.990 | −0.307 |
| ln age × ln HDL | 3.149 | 4.475 | 1.769 | 0 |
| ln SBP, treated | 2.019 | 29.291 | 1.797 | 1.916 |
| ln age × ln SBP, treated | 0 | −6.432 | 0 | 0 |
| ln SBP, untreated | 1.957 | 27.820 | 1.764 | 1.809 |
| ln age × ln SBP, untreated | 0 | −6.087 | 0 | 0 |
| smoker | 7.574 | 0.691 | 7.837 | 0.549 |
| ln age × smoker | −1.665 | 0 | −1.795 | 0 |
| diabetes | 0.661 | 0.874 | 0.658 | 0.645 |
| baseline survival S10 | 0.9665 | 0.9533 | 0.9144 | 0.8954 |
| mean of the sum | −29.18 | 86.61 | 61.18 | 19.54 |
The means are exactly as printed in Goff 2013 Table A, to two decimals. Some software (for example the preventr R package) uses four decimals (−29.1817, 86.6081, 61.1816, 19.5425), which can move the shown risk by 0.1 percentage point.
Inputs and rounding
- Ages 40 to 79, total cholesterol 130 to 320 mg/dL, HDL 20 to 100 mg/dL, SBP 90 to 200 mmHg: the ranges the guideline gives for the equations.
- mmol/L is converted to mg/dL by dividing by 0.02586 (Khan 2024), so the SI fields take 3.37 to 8.27 mmol/L (total) and 0.52 to 2.58 mmol/L (HDL).
- Other races use the White equations.
- The risk is rounded to one decimal place, halves up, from the decimal value: a result within 1e-9 (relative) of a half counts as the half. The category is read from the rounded risk: under 5% low, 5% to 7.4% borderline, 7.5% to 19.9% intermediate, 20% or more high (Grundy 2018).
Worked examples by hand
The Table A profile, White woman. Age 55, total cholesterol 213, HDL 50, SBP 120 untreated, non-smoker, no diabetes. ln 55 = 4.00733, ln 213 = 5.36129, ln 50 = 3.91202, ln 120 = 4.78749. Sum = −29.799 × 4.00733 + 4.884 × 16.05870 + 13.540 × 5.36129 − 3.114 × 21.48447 − 13.578 × 3.91202 + 3.149 × 15.67676 + 1.957 × 4.78749 = −29.6767. Risk = 1 − 0.9665^exp(−29.6767 + 29.18) = 1 − 0.9665^0.60855 = 2.052%, shown as 2.1%, low.
The same profile for the other three groups gives sums of 86.1677 (African American women, 3.026%, 3.0%), 60.6995 (White men, 5.384%, 5.4%, borderline), and 18.9728 (African American men, 6.073%, 6.1%, borderline). The guideline text gives 2.1%, 3.0%, 5.3%, and 6.1% for this profile. Its 5.3% for White men comes from the sum shown to two decimals (60.69 gives 5.335%); the full sum gives 5.4%. Both are borderline.
White man, 60, SI units. Total cholesterol 5.172 mmol/L ÷ 0.02586 = 200 mg/dL, HDL 1.1637 mmol/L = 45 mg/dL, SBP 140 treated, smoker, diabetes. ln 60 = 4.09434. Sum = 12.344 × 4.09434 + 11.853 × 5.29832 − 2.664 × 21.69313 − 7.990 × 3.80666 + 1.769 × 15.58576 + 1.797 × 4.94164 + 7.837 − 1.795 × 4.09434 + 0.658 = 62.7328. Risk = 1 − 0.9144^exp(1.5528) = 34.48%, shown as 34.5%, high.
Limits
The equations come from US cohorts followed from the 1960s to the 1990s. In many recent groups they overestimate risk. They do not include family history, kidney function, or other risk-enhancing factors that a clinician may weigh.
Other questions people ask
What is ASCVD?
Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is disease caused by plaque in the arteries. The Pooled Cohort Equations count a "hard" ASCVD event: a heart attack that is not fatal, death from coronary heart disease, or a stroke (fatal or not).
What do the risk categories mean?
The 2018 AHA/ACC cholesterol guideline groups 10-year risk as low (under 5%), borderline (5% to 7.4%), intermediate (7.5% to 19.9%), and high (20% or more). The guideline uses these groups to start a conversation between a patient and a clinician about prevention. This page does not recommend a treatment.
Why does the calculator ask about race?
The 2013 equations were fitted separately for African American and White adults, because their risk differed in the cohort data. For other groups the guideline uses the White equations, which may overestimate risk for East Asian adults and underestimate it for South Asian adults. The newer PREVENT equations (2024) do not use race.
Who should not use the ASCVD risk calculator?
People who already have heart disease, a stroke, or peripheral artery disease; people with LDL cholesterol of 190 mg/dL or more; and people outside ages 40 to 79. The equations were not built for them.
What is the difference between the ASCVD calculator and PREVENT?
PREVENT (Khan and others, 2024) is a newer set of equations from the American Heart Association. It works from age 30, adds kidney function, estimates heart failure too, and does not use race. It usually gives lower risks than the Pooled Cohort Equations. See the PREVENT calculator.