What is my PREVENT heart risk?

Medical disclaimer

This calculator is for information and education only. It is not medical advice, and its result is not a diagnosis. Do not use it to start, stop, or change a treatment without a clinician who knows your health history. No licensed clinician has reviewed this page. This site's editors checked the formulas and worked examples against published sources. If you think you have a medical emergency, call your local emergency number.

When this does not apply. PREVENT is for adults 30 to 79 without known heart disease, stroke, or heart failure (Khan 2024). It does not apply to people who already have these conditions, or to values outside the ranges the study used.

How the risk is worked out

PREVENT is a logistic model. For each outcome (total CVD, ASCVD, heart failure), time frame (10 or 30 years), and sex:

risk (%) = 100 × e^x ÷ (1 + e^x), where x = constant + Σ coefficient × term

Cholesterol is in mmol/L: mg/dL × 0.02586 (Khan 2024). Blood pressure is in mmHg, eGFR in mL/min/1.73 m², BMI in kg/m². The terms are:

A product such as "bptx × csbp2" is an interaction term. A 0 in the tables means the equation has no such term.

10-year coefficients

30-year coefficients

Notes on the coefficients:

• The heart failure equations have a term "cage × cbmi2". The review article prints it without the "(age − 55)/10" factor; the model has it as an age interaction, and with it the results match the preventr package.
• Women's 10-year total CVD csbp2 is 0.3600781 in the coefficient table and 0.360078 in the written equation; the calculator uses 0.3600781.

Inputs and rounding

• Ages 30 to 79 (30-year risks for 30 to 59 only), total cholesterol 130 to 320 mg/dL, HDL 20 to 100 mg/dL, SBP 90 to 180 mmHg, eGFR 15 to 140, BMI 18.5 to 39.9. Khan 2024 left out people with SBP under 90 or over 200 mmHg, total cholesterol under 130 or over 320 mg/dL, HDL under 20 or over 100 mg/dL, and BMI under 18.5 or 40 or more. This page stops SBP at 180 mmHg, inside the study range.
• SI cholesterol is used as typed in mmol/L. The SI fields take 3.37 to 8.27 mmol/L (total) and 0.52 to 2.58 mmol/L (HDL).
• Each risk is rounded to one decimal place (halves round up, read from the decimal value: a result within 1e-9 (relative) of a half counts as the half, so 2.005 rounds to 2.01).

Worked examples by hand

The preventr README example. Woman, 50, total cholesterol 200 mg/dL, HDL 45 mg/dL, SBP 160 treated, diabetes, non-smoker, no statin, eGFR 90, BMI 35. The 10-year risks are 14.7% (total CVD), 9.2% (ASCVD), and 8.1% (heart failure); the 30-year risks are 53.0%, 35.4%, and 39.0%. The preventr package gives 0.147, 0.092, 0.081 and 0.53, 0.354, 0.39.

Every term zero. Man, 55, total cholesterol 4.8 mmol/L, HDL 1.3 mmol/L, SBP 130, eGFR 90, BMI 25, no medicines, no diabetes, non-smoker. Then cage, cnhdl, chdl, csbp, csbp2, cegfr, cegfr2, and cbmi2 are 0, and cbmi is 0. So x is the constant: 10-year total CVD 100 ÷ (1 + e^3.031168) = 4.6%, ASCVD 100 ÷ (1 + e^3.500655) = 2.9%, heart failure 100 ÷ (1 + e^3.946391) = 1.9%; 30-year 100 ÷ (1 + e^1.148204) = 24.1%, 100 ÷ (1 + e^1.736444) = 15.0%, 100 ÷ (1 + e^1.95751) = 12.4%.

Woman, 65. Total cholesterol 240 mg/dL (6.2064 mmol/L), HDL 40 mg/dL (1.0344 mmol/L), SBP 150 treated, statin, smoker, no diabetes, eGFR 45, BMI 28. cage = 1, cnhdl = 1.672, chdl = −0.88533, csbp = 0, csbp2 = 1, cegfr = 1, cegfr2 = 2, cbmi = 0.6, cbmi2 = 0. Total CVD: x = −0.93302, risk 28.2%. ASCVD: x = −1.56578, risk 17.3%. Heart failure: x = −1.76052, risk 14.7%. Age 65 is over 59, so no 30-year risks.

Limits

The base model does not use urine albumin, HbA1c, or where you live (the social deprivation index); the full PREVENT model can. The equations are for people without known heart disease or stroke, and they were built from US data.